INDIA - CHINA Tensions

WHY CHINA IS RAISING HEAT AT THE LINE OF ACTUAL CONTROL

In this blog we will try & understand what really China aims to achieve by this increased tensions, what is the intention of China and what is exactly the situation & what are future possibilities.

History of stand-offs between India-china

First lets look at a brief history of stand-offs between India and china

    1.   Sino-India War  1962

In 1949 under Mao Zedong, China launched an invasion of Tibet. On Oct 1950, the Chinese Army took over the country, starting at Chamdo.

A year later Dalai Lama through its representatives signed a treaty with Chinese. After years of scattered protest, a full scale revolt broke out in March 1959 and Dalai Lama was forced to flee as the revolt was crushed by Chinese Troops.

On march31,1959 he began a permanent exile in India, settling at Dharamshala in Himachal Pradesh, where he established a democratically based shadow Tibetan Govt (or Tibetan government in exile) .
Threat to China’s rule of Tibet  became one of the most prominent reasons for Sino-Indian war.

China attacked India on Oct  20,1962, battle continued for a month & ended on Nov21,1962.
China captured Aksai Chin  and Demchok region of Ladakh.

    2.  Mini war of  1967

1^st Conflict started in Nathu La sector of Sikkim, when PLA(People’s Liberation Army) attacked India on 11^th Sept 1967. Heavy artillery firing  between Indian & Chinese forces took place. This mini war lasted for 4days . 70 Indian soldiers were martyred and around 400 Chinese soldiers lost their lives.  This mini war was won by India as the loss was huge to Chinese plus their purpose of attacking, that was to capture nathu La , was defeated .Yet many Indians are unaware of this victory and no one ever tried to celebrate this like on 16^th Dec each year ‘Vijay diwas’ is celebrated for victory over Pakistan in 1971.

    3.  Conflict of 1986 in Arunachal Pradesh

The 1987 Sino-India skirmish was the 3^rd military conflict between  Chinese PLA and the Indian Army that occurred at the Sumdorong Chu Valley. It lead to a near War situation .

 Indira Gandhi ordered a general review of India’s security plans. In 1982-83, she approved a plan submitted by the  Chief of the Army staff, General K.V Krishna Rao, to upgrade the sporadic deployment of forces along the Line of Actual  Control. In Feb 1986 new chief, General K. Sundarji, was determined to press the decisions taken by General Krishna Rao. In addition, Sundarji sought government permission to conduct an exercise named Operation Chequerboard to see how quickly troops based in the Assam plains could take up their positions on the Sino-Indian border. As part of the exercise, towards the end of the year, the army landed a brigade of troops at Zimithaung, south of Hathung La using its new heavy lift Mi-26 helicopters. These forces occupied the Hathung La, across the Namka Chu from Thag La. All this alarmed the Chinese forces in the region; they responded and moved up their forces to take up positions all along the LAC. At points near this area—Sulu La, Bum La, etc. the troops were now face to face with their Indian counterparts. However, the forces did not engage in combat.

At the end of 1986,, India granted statehood to Arunachal Pradesh. The military movements in Tawang, taken in conjunction with this political action was seen  as a provocation by the Chinese . Beijing started talking in the same tone as of before 1962 War. Then Indian  Foreign  Minister ND Tiwari went to Beijing in May 1987 to  convey the message that there was no intention on New Delhi’s part to aggravate  the situation.

    4.   Doklam standoff

Doklam Plateau is a disputed area between China and Bhutan . The  Doklam standoff started in June 2017 when Chinese tried to extend a road in Doklam plateau southwards near the Doka La pass and they were stopped from doing so by the Indian troops. India claimed to have acted on behalf of Bhutan, with which it has a ‘special relationship’.

India is concerned that if road is completed , itw ill give China access to India’s “Chicken neck” or Siliguri Corridor. It is a 20km wide corridor that links rest of India with 7 North-Eastern States. Therefore , India took the right  decision to protect its strategic Interests. The Doklam standoff continued for 73 days

Map showing geographical location of Doklam 

area where Doklam standoff of 2017 occurred.

When did it all started?

It all started with China's attempted incursion in Pangong Tso lake in Ladakh and Naku la in Sikkim on 5th May 2020 and 9th May 2020 respectively. 

1st clash took place in eastern ladakh on 5th & 6th May 2020, when the Indian & Chinese troops got involved in heated arguments and aggressive patrolling.

2nd clash took place on 9th May 2020 between Indian and Chinese soldiers in  Naku la sector of Sikkim which is at an altitude of about 5000 metre.

The incident in Sikkim and later stand-off at Galwan valley, is unexpected as LAC in these areas is broadly agreed to, that is , China itself did not consider Galwan valley as disputed , it agreed it as India's part but due to many reasons but especially due to the land grabber & expansionist attitude of china it now calls Galwan Valley in Ladakh and Naku La sector in Sikkim as "disputed", which is typical of China.

Map showing starting points of the stand-offs or the areas where it all started 

The stand-off in Galwan valley in Ladakh was triggered by china moving in troops and equipment to stop construction activity by India .

But that's not the only reason , we will look at the reasons or thinking behind sudden increased Chinese aggression

Reasons for Unwarranted Chinese aggression 

There are many possible reasons for the increased Chinese incursions and aggressive posturing .

We will try & understand these reasons-

1. China's major reason of recent incursions is "China's diversionary strategy" which means China(more so Xi jinping) wants to divert attention of the whole world from Covid19(Wuhan Virus) . If World media starts talking  more about India-China border skirmishes, about Hong kong's independence , about china's tensions with Taiwan ,attention would be diverted from COVID19 virus and calls for investigation on China's response. China is a country that  fears its own people.  Apart from International pressure , there has been growing anger and dissatisfaction domestically. So what better move than to announce that there is a possibility of a war, this would unite the country and buy time for Xi jinping. Similar events occurred before the 1962 India-China war , at that time there was a major famine in china due to which lakhs of people died, There was growing dissatisfaction among Chinese citizens as a result china declared war on India in 1962 with a major aim of diverting domestic criticism and also capturing aksai chin as it was important to connect Xinjiang province of china with Tibet.

2.  China wants to keep India on its side even though it takes coercive military pressure. China sees major shift in India's policy .China doesn't want the world's largest democracy(i.e., India) to join & play major role in the Anti-China nexus. World over there is growing Anti-china sentiment .There is call for investigation into the source of origin of COVID19 virus. Moreover, China fears that India could recognize Taiwan officially and it may prompt other countries to do the same. So china is basically showing its military muscle to keep India from drifting away from One-china policy. 

3.  China wants to keep Indian security policy focused to North with borders with China & Pakistan so that it could ensure that Indian Navy doesn't get attention(mainly funds) and doesn't grow in size & capabilities. China knows Indian navy is a force to reckon in the region. It is the only navy in the region that could if required block chinese major trade routes that passes through Malacca Strait .It is this reason due to which China is spending on CPEC as it could prove to be a viable alternative to its sea  trade route in times of naval blocade of Malacca Strait . Also the reason why China wants to ensure that Indian Navy doesn't grow in strength is that it doesn't want Indian Navy's presence in South China sea to increase.So just to ensure that Indian governments over the years focus more on Army & Air force than Navy , China keeps on raking up Border tensions. And also it is China's way of diplomacy,that if  you want negotiation to be in your favour then keep the fear of military/armed conflict alive in the other country's mind.

4.  This reason isn't that strong though Chinese Government and Chinese state mouthpiece 'Global times' state it as a prominent reason for Chinese actions.

The reason being increased Border Infrastructure development by India. Though this reason isn't that strong as many of the border infrastructure projects were started decades ago, some  ranging 1 to 2 decades back and at that time there wasn't any such portest.

Future possibilities 

These skirmishes and border dispute between India and china will only increase in the coming years. As India's policy with regard to china is becoming more clearer and aggressive than what it was earlier . China fears India's growing assertiveness and dominance in Indo-Pacific region which could counter china. 

China is aware that its tricks , its Gun-boat diplomacy that it uses against India is not that effective now but it still persists with the strategy to contain India's rise as much as possible and to threaten India by showing  its military might & suggesting much greater conflicts if India opposes China. Also China is threatening economic action ,all this as India is clearly & openly opposing China whether its by the Formation of Quad  (India, Aus, USA, Japan) to counter china in South china sea ; by supporting call for Investigation into response of china & WHO to COVID 19 Virus or supporting Taiwan's inclusion as observer in WHO.

The more India comes closer to USA , the more India-China flare up will occur in future.

WHY CHINA WOUDN'T WANT WAR WITH INDIA?

1. China's lack of battle preparedness and battle experience. China fought its last war in 1979 with Vietnam and lost it badly . So those in PLA who have some battle experience have retired or are on the verge of retirement. Moreover many experts have stated that China's one child policy is one of the prominent reasons resulting in pampered, undisciplined and Wimps & sissies. Even the publication of Chinese government calls "wimps" and "dangerously corrupt". "Soldiers from the One child generations are wimps who have absolutely no fighting spirit" said a Chinese govt publication.

According to some estimates almost 70% of Chinese military comes from one child policy. Whereas, Indian Army is a battle hardened army which fought its last major war in kargil 1999 ,moreover it is still continuously fighting a asymmetrical proxy war with terrorists originating from PAK.

2. Now because of the above reason Chinese soldiers are physically & mentally weak than Indian soldiers. In 2017 a study in china revealed that more than 25% of Chinese soldiers fail to meet basic physical tests, they failed blood test and urine tests due to drinking too much alcohol and fizzy drinks.

3. PLA( people's liberation Army ) exists to defend the Chinese Communist Party . PLA is nothing more than a group of hired goons, fighting with common Chinese people to make them fall in line with CCP. PLA assists the CCP in implementing their ideals across the nation and overseas.  PLA doesn't fight out of love for china or for china's constitution or its citizens. It fights for CCP and their ideals only. Xi jinping is General Secretary of the Communist Party and also the chair of the Central Military Commission, which manages  the People's liberation Army. This means Mr. Xi has direct say in even the smallest & routine affairs of the Army as he is the "commander in Chief" of PLA. Whereas on the other hand  Indian Army doesn't belong to any party, it operates to defend the nation and not any party. In other words , PLA=party's Army and Indian Army=Nation's Army.

4. China is encircled by enemies, any war with India could spiral out into war on 3-4  fronts which China cannot afford nor can it fight. India has full support of USA, Japan, Australia, France. China's only hope is Russia, who will not go against India .

• WHY  RUSSIA MAY NOT SUPPORT CHINA AGAINST WAR WITH INDIA?

Russia would never support China because there is border dispute between Russia and China in Russia's eastern side. China has greater influence in Russia's far east regions. Russia fears that this increased Chinese influence may lead to colonialization in Russia's far east region. 

That's why Russia wanted India's presence in its far-east region, because India has been Russia's one of the most trusted allies. You may remember last year's Vladivostok summit where Indian PM announced India's contribution to development of Russia's far east region by giving $1Billion Line of credit for the purpose.

Moreover China has caused maximum damage to Russia's defence industry by copying their military hardware & selling the same copied version to other countries at much lesser price. Some of the clear copies of Russian weapons include- Su27(Russian)- J11(Chinese copy) and S300(Russian)-HQ9(Chinese copy).

Now China also has support of 2 negligible powers i.e., Pakistan and Nepal. Pakistan would happily want to go to war against India but Nepal even after its anti-India rhetoric is unlikely to go to war with India, as it knows the amount of unnecessary damage  war with India will cause to Nepal. So apart from Pakistan china doesn't has clear support of any country.

5. China's military lacks professionalism, battle preparedness and is highly inefficient . For instance in 2015 Chinese troops part of UN peacekeepers refused to help as aid workers were raped in South Sudan. In July 2015 rebel groups of Sudan launched fierce attack leading to thousands of civilian fleeing the area , the Chinese peacekeepers stayed on their bases rather than protecting civilians.

On the last day of the fighting, about 80 to 100 government soldiers attacked a compound in Juba where they raped and gang-raped at least five international aid workers and physically or sexually assaulted at least a dozen others.

• All this happened when there was a UN Base manned by Chinese peacekeepers only a few hundred metres from the compound. However despite dozens of appeals for help from the besieged aid workers and personal visits from at least one who escaped from the compound, the Chinese peacekeepers simply REFUSED to leave the safety of their base.
• Moreover on the last day of fighting when few artillery hit near base where chinese soldiers were there , the chinese soldiers left their arms & ammunition & ran off, something a professional Army would never do.
• It was Indian Army that actually saved them. As per reports , INDBATT II , 7th battalion of the Kumaon regiment were called to take charge , who were held as reserve . Within no time "it was learnt that the troops secured the perimeter and weeded out armed militiamen".
• Another incident which happened in 2019 when Chinese Orienteering team was caught cheating at Military World Games. These incidents signifies lack of training and conditioning as per military needs. 

On the other hand, India has major advantage like Indian mountain core is the world's biggest, most lethal and most skilled mountain fighting force,which is also recognized by US which is the biggest military power and many defence experts claim the same.

Recent events suggesting there might be a war

On 15th June 2020 ,there was a violent face off between Indian troops and PLA troops at Galwan valley near patrolling point 14.

It is similar to an ambushed attack which the Chinese carried out on Indian troops in 1975 in Arunachal Pradesh.

On June 6th 2020 it was mutually agreed that there would be "de-escalation & Deinduction  of forces at galwan nullah (Patrolling point 14,15). 

Indian Army's New Bailey Bridge which was recently built by India is 2km away from Patrol point 14 . The bridge was one of the things that triggered China unnecessarily though.

The bridge was there earlier but it could only facilitate foot soldiers and no vehicles or trucks passing, thereby hindering troops movement. The old bridge was replaced by a new much stronger bridge which could easily facilitate movement  of mechanised infantry(i.e., with tanks,trucks,artilleries,etc), this is what has irked the Chinese.

As per June 6th agreement for de-escalation both troops were to move 5kms back from their current forward positions. At that time the Chinese had built temporary structure near patrol point 14 . On 15th June 2020 Indian troops on their routine Patrols went to check whether the Chinese had moved back from their position or not. They found the tents still there which they started dismantling , this is the time when they were ambush attacked by the chinese troops by stones & rods and other modified weapons. Indian troops called for reinforcement , reports suggest the violent clash continued for nearly 4hours.

India lost 20 Braveheart soldiers with several other injured, while the Chinese as per Indian Army's calculation suffered 43+ deaths and as per US intel report Chinese suffered at least 35 deaths.
Also some reports suggest that out of 20 , 17 died after falling from cliff into freezing cold Galwan river.

US Intel report also claims china wont release exact number as it is "humiliated by casualty" and that it wasn't just on the spot clash that happened rather it was preplanned and "ordered by chinese western command".
 While many reports also suggest that China may have suffered anything between 55 to 65 deaths. This when they had planned attack well before ,they were surprised by  more than expected response from Indian Army. All this when India was outnumbered ratio of Indian soldiers to Chinese soldiers was about 1:3, for 1 Indian soldier there were 3 Chinese soldiers .
That's what i said above there is a huge difference in professionalism, battle preparedness and even skill level of Indian Army and PLA.

This pic shows the dispute between India and china in the region of Pangong Tso and also china  pushing its camps towards 'Finger 4' area . 

China claims till 'Finger 4' area the reason behind it being that it wants to dominate "Chusul valley" which south of 'Finger 4' area & across the pangong lake and it is of immense strategic value ,  so much so that China launched its major offensive against India during 1962 in this very area. China may have won the 1962 war but it lost badly the 'battle of Rezang la', in brief , 114 indian soldiers were martyred and 1300 chinese soldiers were killed in the battle. Major Shaitan singh got paramvir chakra for his victory of battel of rezang la.

India's response to recent events
1. "Army given full freedom to deal with China": MoS kishan reddy
2. "Making exaggerated and untenable claims is contrary to understanding reached"
3. S Jaishankar in a phone call with China's Foreign minster said "premeditated & planned action was directly responsible for the resulting violence & casualties".
 He also said that "incident would have serious repercussions on India's relationship with China".

What is disheartening is that Chinese Communist Party was so ashamed of their failure in their vicious plans that they didn't even honoured their soldiers , that's what happens when a Army fights for a party and not for their country.While on the other hand India honoured its soldiers who sacrificed their lives , so much so that there is clearly evident anger against China and Chinese products.

All i would say is if u can't turn this anger against China into action(boycotting anything & everything Chinese) then it is worthless. I would end this debate to boycott or not to boycott by raising a question that "When there is bloodshed at the border can there be or should there be business as usual with China(which is the root cause of all major problems of India) ??"

CONCLUSION
China is working on strategy wherein it wants to gain control over "Five fingers of Tibet"(no it is not same as pangong Tso fingers). China  consider 'Tibet' as Palm and Sikkim,Ladakh,Nepal, Bhutan & Arunachal Pradesh  as 5 Fingers of Tibet. This  strategy  was given by Mao  Zedong (the Founding father of People's Republic of China) and CCP has always been working on this strategy.

China is a 'Paper dragon' . China lacks military skills, yes they have required military hardware but they lack the skills required to operate it. China's soldiers lack skills & zeal to fight a war. China's Army isn't a 'battle hardened' Army. 
I really don't see china to be stupid enough to start a full fledged War with India . They might start a mini war like that of 1967, that is, they might fight a area specific or sector specific war with India. But chances of China starting a full fledged War with India are very remote .. Moreover as i write there is already news that China has agreed for de-escalation on all fronts. But China can't be trusted as there main objective of all this drama was to escape criticism that Xi jinping was facing from chinese public for mishandling of coronavirus, but rather now domestic criticism of Xi JJinping has increased over death of chinese soldiers and hiding of it.
So to escape all this now they fight a sectoral war with India .

In the end I would say given the Chinese aggression with nearly all its neighbours shows it has zero respect for peace , all it cares about is its land grabbing ambitions. China is danger to global peace.